Items retaining their prefixes after crafting: Has this happened to you?

[Samrux]

I was impressed today to find a Warding Tsunami in a Bottle from fishing. I later found a Balloon Pufferfish, and crafted it together with the Tsunami in a Bottle to get... a Warding Sharkron Balloon. After that, I imagined how ridiculously lucky it would be to get another warding once I mixed it with a Lucky Horseshoe. But it didn't surprise me when I crafted a Warding Pink Horseshoe Balloon.

Did I just experience a 1 in 10,000 event, or are accesories now able to retain their modifiers upon mixing them?

 

[Chazm]

I was impressed today to find a Warding Tsunami in a Bottle from fishing. I later found a Balloon Pufferfish, and crafted it together with the Tsunami in a Bottle to get... a Warding Sharkron Balloon. After that, I imagined how ridiculously lucky it would be to get another warding once I mixed it with a Lucky Horseshoe. But it didn't surprise me when I crafted a Warding Pink Horseshoe Balloon.

Did I just experience a 1 in 10,000 event, or are accesories now able to retain their modifiers upon mixing them?

(technically it's a 1 in 23^3 event, but yes you did)

 

[Drdragonfly]

(technically it's a 1 in 23^3 event, but yes you did)

Not quite... The chance of getting warding 3 times in a row is not the same as keeping the same modifier twice. So actually (technically) it is a 1 in 23^2 (0.19%) event, keeping the modifier twice. If however the question was actually about the occurence of having had warding 3 times in a row it's a 1 in 23^3 (0.008%) event as you stated.

Let's imagine however that Warding isn't the only prefix that would have given Samrux reason to be surprised. What if a tripple Armored, Menacing or Lucky would also have been notable enough (for example). Then the chance would be closer to 4 in 23^3 (0.03%). Maybe there are other prefixes that would have been seen as favorable. What I'm trying to say is that when you are looking at probabilities you always have to consider thorougly what the given information was and how it might change.

 

[Chazm]

Not quite... The chance of getting warding 3 times in a row is not the same as keeping the same modifier twice. So actually (technically) it is a 1 in 23^2 (0.19%) event, keeping the modifier twice. If however the question was actually about the occurence of having had warding 3 times in a row it's a 1 in 23^3 (0.008%) event as you stated.

Let's imagine however that Warding isn't the only prefix that would have given Samrux reason to be surprised. What if a tripple Armored, Menacing or Lucky would also have been notable enough (for example). Then the chance would be closer to 4 in 23^3 (0.03%). Maybe there are other prefixes that would have been seen as favorable. What I'm trying to say is that when you are looking at probabilities you always have to consider thorougly what the given information was and how it might change.

He however did not state any other occurances, so I just stuck with the original values.