I tried breaking *one* shadow orb every day because the chance is higher the day after a shadow orb was broken... well, 3 broken orbs, still no invasion. I don't want to have to farm those stupidly rare scouts just to pop an invasion.....sigh
And of course this is the playthrough where everything crafted has ridiculously terrible prefixes (how about that Sluggish Molten Pickaxe? ARRGH) and "hey, have lots of accessories that you can't combine!" ... I'm only a sextant away from the fish finder, I've got all of the gizmo pack accessories, I have everything the TM sells... arrrgh.
Only one Shadow Orb is required for the Goblin Army. Then (assumin you have at least 200 health) there will be a 1/3 chance every day for the army to first invade. Breaking more Shadow Orbs will not increase the chance of the invasion. (It will increase the chance of falling Meteorites.)
That kinda stinks... they should have made it like the meteorites, that each time you break one, you have increased chances of it happening the next day. That way you can avoid the 10, 20 day dry spells because goblins ARE pretty important to mid-easymode progression.
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