Working as Designed [BUG] Frozen Turtle Shell not reflecting stated drop rate

[Azure30]

Steam or GOG

Steam

Single Player/Multiplayer

Multi

Operating System

Windows 10

Terraria Version

1.4.0.4

Controls Used

Keyboard/Mouse

I've killed 550 Ice Tortoise and haven't gotten a single shell to drop. I've gotten at least 20 milkshakes and 6 ice sickles (specifically from the Tortoise) during this grind. This is on Master Mode.

Literally every other item has dropped within reason, often far more frequently than advertised (I assume because of increased drop rates on higher difficulties) but this one item has a modest drop rate of 1% and simply doesn't appear. I've searched this problem and found various topics from people having the same problem with the same item only for them to be told 'thats probability'. Listen. Probability means you could flip a coin 1000 times and have it land on heads all 1000 times because every flip is independent of the others and will always be (very nearly) 50/50 each flip. It doesn't mean that will actually ever happen to you. The odds of an ice sickle dropping and no shell dropping after 550 kills is about 1 in 264 - and it happened 6 times.

I cheated for a shell after this so I dont particularly care about the outcome of this topic but I am suggesting you at least verify this one. Any other possible variables:

I've had the server running this map non-stop for about 4 days now.
I have used the dusk/dawn commands once or twice (but Ice Tortoises were killed well over a week of in-game time passing normally)
Sometimes played with friends, sometimes played solo
No luck potions used. No debuffs of any kind besides the occasional frozen status from local mobs. Relevant banners are placed in the area.

 

[darthmorf]

The shell definitley drops as intended, you're not going to like this but I beleive you have just got unlucky.
We get threads all the time about pretty much every rare item, so the fact that other's have made the same assumption that it's bugged doesn't mean it is.

 

[Leinfors]

To reinforce darthmorf's post here:

I spawned 100 Ice Tortoises in, killed them, got one Frozen Turtle Shell.

Spawned another 100, got 2 more.

Spawned a final batch of 100, didn't get one.

So it sounds like the RNG was just doing that thing it does.

For what its worth, the Bestiary's drop rates (while not always fullproof) are calculated directly from the drop rate code itself. The code that determines the drops is also what automatically determines what the Bestiary says. So in the vast majority of cases, it is accurate.